Saratoga Picks & Analysis August 30

Solid week so far, hitting the board 61% of the time with picks and 28% outright winners. Our top picks have Won or Placed in 15 of 28 races this week. Took Saturday off but we are back for this Sunday card. 

Just wanted to note that Irad Ortiz Jr. has been off his mounts the last couple days cause of injury. I still mention him in write ups because him getting a call for a horse is still relevant to that race. Also, more times than not he has been replaced with a respectable jockey the last couple days. 

Not the Stakes filled card that Saturday was but some good races being run in the weekend finale here today. Early races have some good single choices and fits for early rolling plays. More value plays and ponies with longer odds in the later races but that comes with some trickier fields. Should be another exciting day as we close in on the last week of this summer meet at Saratoga. 

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: BLOOD MOON (3-5), NO MO’ SPENDING (6-5) and BLUE ATLAS (5-2)

Best Value: O SHEA CAN U SEE (9-2) and BARREL OF DESTINY (5-1)

Live Longshots: BELLERA (10-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

Ponies We Like: 2-6-1-3

***Moved OFF the turf***

New picks: 1-3-6-8

First Pick: #2 BOSS BEAR (6-1) Bunch of 1st timers in this 5.5f sprint on the turf. This Michael Maker trained horse ran 6th in debut but that was on the turf. Good chance to improve here as this horse has solid turf pedigree and gets Irad Ortiz on the mount. 

Second Pick: #6 DEE BO (8-1) Hope this is a reference to the Friday movies. This 2 year old is running for the 1st time here for trainer Steve Asmussen. Jockey Joel Rosario will take the reins for a horse that seems to be turf bred. 

Third Pick: #1 OUR MAN MIKE (5-1) Another 1st timer here, this time for Horacio DePaz. Bred for the turf and solid MSW spot for DePaz here. Will get top tier jockey Jose Ortiz aboard here. 

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 2-3-6

First Pick: #2 BLOOD MOON (3-5) Chalkier picks this race but these horses seem to be step above others. This Danny Gargan trained horse will drop down in class for this 1 ⅛ m race on the dirt. Has posted best speed among this field and has Kendrick Carmouche aboard. Has 10 career starts for 1 Win, 3 Places and 2 Shows and at this distance, has 2 Show results in 2 tries. 

Second Pick: #3 BUONA FINA (5-2) This horse will move up in class for this race today. Has 1 Win and 1 Place in 3 career races. Last race was Win and came at today’s distance (1 ⅛ m) and surface (dirt). Has had Manny Franco aboard for all 3 races so far and will be again here. 

Third Pick: #6 FRIED RICE KING (7-2) Class drop for this Todd Pletcher trained horse. Has Irad Ortiz aboard which will be an upgrade. 5 career starts have been inconsistent with 1 Win in 5 tries (two 4th place finishes). 

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 4-6-5

First Pick: #4 NO MO’ SPENDING (6-5) This 7 horse field is majority 1st timers. This horse has 2 races to speak of with 1 Show finish. Improved from debut to 2nd race and should be in a good spot to improve again here. Had Javier Castellano aboard last time and will again here. 

Second Pick: #6 ELUSIVE SITE (2-1) 1st timer here for trainer Todd Pletcher and has a solid pedigree that has produced winners. Good spot for Pletcher and he will put Irad Ortiz aboard here. 

Third Pick: #5 U GUYS ARE NO FUN (8-1) Another 1st timer, this time for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. Also has a solid pedigree that has produced winners from the Dam side. Luis Saez hops aboard for this 6.5f sprint on the dirt. 

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 9-7-3-6

***Moved OFF the turf*** New picks: 5-3-2

First Pick: #9 IAN GLASS (5-1) This horse will move up in the claiming ranks for this race and gets Joel Rosario for back to back mounts (Win last time out). Has hit the board in 4 of 6 races at this 1 1/16m distance and 8 of 13 races on the turf. 

Second Pick: #7 SOGLIO (3-1) Another horse that has hit the board in 4 of 6 tries at this distance. Comes in from 6 month layoff but has best speed on the turf among this field here. Jockey John Velazquez will hop aboard for this experienced turf horse (28 starts/6w/5p/8s). 

Third Pick: #3 SIDING SPRING (10-1) Lesser connections but this horse has solid early speed and could be out front early. Has 2 Wins and 3 Shows in 10 starts at today’s distance and has hit the board in 14 of 26 starts on the turf. 

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 9-4-5-1

***Moved OFF the turf*** New picks: 4-5-15

First Pick: #9 SO ENCHANTING (3-1) An entire field of 1st timers here. We will take the Chad Brown trained horse in this 5.5f sprint on the turf. Gets familiar and trusted Javier Castellano aboard here. Has posted solid workouts and comes from pedigree that fits the turf. 

Second Pick: #4 MUN LUV (8-1) Another horse with pedigree that should fit the turf here today. Gets Joel Rosario aboard here and the sprinting distance fits breeding as well. 

Third Pick: #5 RED GHOST (5-2) Turf bred horse for trainer Wesley Ward. Jockey Irad Ortiz will hop aboard for this sprint. Solid numbers in this spot with 1st time starters for Ward.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 2-3-4-5

***#4 SCRATCHED*** New picks: 2-3-5

First Pick: #2 SUMMER BOURBON (7-2) Ton of experience in this field. This Rudy Rodriguez trained horse has 41 career starts for 9 Wins, 7 Places and 5 Shows. Will drop down 2 classes here and that is a good spot for Rudy Rod. Has hit the board in 5 of 10 at this 6.5f distance and has best speed numbers among this field at this distance. 

Second Pick: #3 O SHEA CAN U SEE (9-2) Love a Mets reference for this horse out of Linda Rice’s barn. This horse is also dropping down 2 classes which has been good by the numbers for Rice. 32 career starts with 5 Wins, 7 Places and 5 Shows. In great form this year, hitting the board in 5 of 6 races.  

Third Pick: #4 LAZARUS PROJECT (6-1) Has done solid work at this 6.5f distance with 2 Wins, 2 Places and 3 Shows in 10 starts. Experienced horse with 53 career starts for 5 Wins, 9 Places and 20 Shows. Gets Kendrick Carmouche aboard who has hit the money in 2 of 4 races aboard. 

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 12-2-7-4

First Pick: #12 BLUE ATLAS (5-2) Will get Jose Ortiz aboard for 3rd consecutive race (Win and Place in previous 2 rides together). Has been solid on the turf, hitting the board in 12 of 19 starts. In good form last two times out (Win and Place) and has hit board in 2 of last 3 at today’s distance (1m) and surface (turf). 

Second Pick: #2 BARREL OF DESTINY (5-1) Trained by Michael Maker and has Irad Ortiz hopping aboard. Successful at this 1m distance in 11 starts with 2 Wins, 2 Places and 2 Shows. Has 3 Wins in 6 starts this year and is experienced on the grass with 23 starts and 10 races in the money. 

Third Pick: #7 DANCINGWITHDAFFODLS (8-1) Will move up in class for this race but comes off Win last time out. Has hit the board in 8 of 14 on the turf. Has speed to run with this field here as well. 32 career starts with 3 Wins, 8 Places and 8 Shows. 

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 4-3-8-10

First Pick: #4 GANDY DANCING (2-1) Tricky ALW level race here at 6f on the dirt. Trained by Chad Brown and gets trusted jockey Javier Castellano at the reins. Last race was today’s distance and surface with 2nd place finish and Castellano aboard as well. Has 1 Win and 1 Place in 3 career races. 

Second Pick: #3 INSIDE INFO (8-1) This Linda Rice entry has some solid early speed and will get aggressive jockey aboard with Luis Saez. Went 0 for 2 in 2019 but has improved in 2020 with 2 Wins in 3 starts this year. 1 Win in 2 starts at this 6f distance as well. 

Third Pick: #8 HARRIS BAY (3-1) This horse has flashed some of the best speed among this field here. 5 career starts (all on dirt) for 1 Win, 1 Place and 2 Shows. Similar showings at this distance with 1 Win and 1 Show in 3 starts at 6f. 

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 9-6-2-3

First Pick: #9 ROYAL FLAG (7-2) Back to back races we will go with the Chad Brown/Javier Castellano combo. This race is STK (G3) level and will be run at 1 ⅛ m on the dirt. 5 career starts for this horse with 3 Wins and 2 Shows. Top connections and ships in here, a good spot for Chad Brown. 

Second Pick: #6 NONNA MADELINE (4-1) One of two entries for trainer Todd Pletcher. This filly is scheduled to have Irad Ortiz aboard. 10 career starts (all on dirt) for 3 Wins, 3 Places and 1 Show. Has hit the board in 4 of 5 starts this year (1w/2p/1s). Ran this 1 ⅛ m distance last time out for a Win. 

Third Pick: #2 BELLERA (10-1) The other entry for trainer Todd Pletcher. Jockey John Velazquez will take reins for back to back (Show result in same last race as #6). Has hit the board in 7 of 8 on the fast dirt and 5 of 6 races at this distance. Could be a live one here. 

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 3-4-5

First Pick: #3 MODERN SCIENCE (3-1) Bunch of 1st timers in this finale being run at 1 1/16m on the turf. This is the only horse that has hit the board with 1 Place and 1 Show in 2 career starts. Good chance for this horse to break maiden today with Joel Rosario aboard. 

Second Pick: #4 SHIRELLE (2-1) 1st timer here for trainer Chad Brown and gets jockey Irad Ortiz aboard. Has pedigree that points to being a good fit on the turf and a good trainer for the surface. 

Third Pick: #5 SOL DEL SUR (10-1) Another live one here in a late race. Ran to 5th place finish in his debut race which was today’s distance (1 1/16m) and surface (turf). That is same race #3 horse in this field ran to 2nd in. Limited ex;erience in this field and we will take the chance that this horse improves off debut.