Notes from The Spa (Thurs 7/28)
- Daily Oats Picks
- Jul 28, 2022
- 5 min read
Just a quick note. Changing up our style a little bit this meet. We will be tweeting out our picks as the races approach (typically a good 15-20 minutes before post). Maximizes the look at the tote board for what we like that day. In order to supplement these shorter form tweets, on the mornings of the races, I will post notes for the card. Not necessarily outright picks but my notes on the PPs and the contenders in each race. There will be horses in the notes that may not make it into our plays come post time/tweet time. Thanks for reading and following !
Race 1
Notes:
Only one real toss out here
Stretch out for most in this race (1 1/8 mile)
#4 Inventing
is sensible favorite
Pletch/Irad will draw $$$
Has put out some great efforts (2 Places) at the Mdn level
Missed $ in G1 Acorn (4th finish)
#2 Forever After All
Intriguing
made huge jump from 1st start to 2nd start (63 → 90 Brisnet)
Beat out #3 for Place finish in last race
#3 She's Keen
4 solid races but only 1 show
Was solid last time out with 90 speed attached
Show finish behind #2 last time out
#5 Aunt Naughty
#1 Amenset
Ehhh but did improve last time out (79 to 82 in first two Dirt starts)
Might be shade behind others here
Race 2
Notes:
Wide open here. Ton of 1st timers
Interesting pedigrees as well
#2 Fleetfooted
12 flat workout
OK trainer stats
#3 Souffle
gonna get favoritism)
Clement horse and Rosario aboard
Candy Ride
Sub 12
#5 Slow Down Summer
interesting long shot
Rudy Rod and Manny
War Dancer/War Front
#6 Snowy Evening
only one with experience
70 spd at 5f (turf)
Place finish
Pletch and Irad
Frosted/Tapit
Are these 1st timers better?
#8 Moonage Daydream
Jose O
Abreu okay with 1st timers actually
Candy Ride
#10 Fancypants Juliana
Luis and J Engle
Mo Town/Uncle Mo
Race 3
Notes:
Few ponies with good Spa records
Similiarish speed showings overall as well
#2 Auburn Hills
Never shortened up distance
Shaky 2022 (6 starts/1 show)
But
Spa record good (3 starts/1 win/1 place)
Class drop and trainer stats have good returns (smallish samples but still solid)
#3 Boldish
Super consistent and speed above others
Drops class with nice career slashes (9 starts/3 wins/3 show)
Good Spa record (2 starts/1 win/1 place)
Speed has been 85+ and hit 90s multiple time (Brisnet reminder)
#5 Quick Return
Hits enough $$
14 career (3/3/2)
Low 80s/high 70s speed
#6 Saratoga Pal
Electric @ Spa (aaaannnddd almost only Spa)
Might be play later because of it
3 starts/2 wins/1 place
Blasted 98 in Win last year here (6f Dirt)
84 at todays and 3 starts/1 wins
Race 4
Notes:
Is this the Goldie Locks distance for someone??
First 7 furlong contest for most
Interesting resumes here
Few groups of horses coming out of same recent races
#2 Sinful Dancer
Solid run on April 30 (Bel) for Place
But eh last 2 out since (both 5th place finishes)
^^^ Shows his inconsistency
9 starts(0/4/2 slashes)
Speed says same story: 64, 86, 88, 69, 67 in 2022
Blinks on is good though
#5 Curlin’s Wisdom
Very solid (7 starts and 0/3/2)
Has improved since moving to Rice barn
60 @ todays concerns though
Great late run on May 29 (Bel) for Place
#6 Ocean’s Reserve
Great run on June 9 (Bel)
Dueled well for Place finish
Speed has been solid (89, 93, 86 and 58 in career)
4 starts (0/2/1 slashes)
#8 Devil Boy
Slow start THEN got a little bottled up in that same June 9 race (as #6 here)
AND still chased down Show dough
That race was cavalry charge for much of it also
SHORTER FIELD AND MOVES OUTSIDE
Good speed and resume (winnable here)
Race 5
Notes:
Birdstone $200k here (sweepstake)
Short field here
#1 Fearless
Excellent slashes for career with 16 starts and 7/6/1
Hasn't missed money this year (all STK level)
Pletch and Luis pair up
Speed #s over 100 multiple times
#2 Lone Rock
Has hit $$ in 10 of last 13 races (2021 + 2022)
4 starts this year with 2 wins and 1 show
Seen this distance and for a Win
Irad aboard
Good at this STK level
#4 Portos
Party crasher?
Needs to improve to do so but is solid
Gets Prat aboard and Pletch stretch out
Possible underneath fodder
Race 6
Notes:
Few with similar speed at today’s d/s
Could get some decent prices
#1 Cold Call
Interesting speed for today’s d/s (78 Bris)
Hasn’t been closer than 3rd but could be interesting if returns June 2 race
#2 Pegs A. K. Girl
7 months off
78 speed @ today’s also
Can sniff the $$ for sure (if ready off the bench)
#3 Birthday Time
Pletch/Prat likely gonna draw attention
Drops class slightly
Fairly consistent two showings on turf (78 and 77 speed)
Place and 5th finishes
#4 Public Service
Goes from Chad Brown to Mike Maker barn
Has slowly improved each time (all turf)
61 (8th) → 68 (3rd) → 75 (3rd)
Could grab piece
#10 Investment Income
CB/Manny will draw attention as well
Outside post could provide needed position in turf bout
Lack of $$ concerns (6 starts/1 place/1 show)
76 speed @ today’s
Flashed 79, 78, 77 and 80 in other turf races
Tossing AW junk race
Race 7
Notes:
This should be a good race
Looks like competitive field
Multiple with angles to take this turf sprint (ALW)
#1 Evan Sing
Intriguing with longer ML odds
Broke maiden @ today’s
5th and 2nd in ALW after that
#3 Ring of Fire
Likely an include
Consistent pony for Rudy Rod
1 start and 1 win at the Spa (5.5 f on turf w/ 79 speed)
Hit money in 5 of 6 turf starts
And high 80s/90s speed
#4 Bustin Shout
Slightly behind others
But has flashed speed to challenge
2 starts/1 win at today’s
#6 Thin White Duke
Hasn’t been to the Spa in years but has 2 starts/2 places
Johnny V aboard
Speed juuusstt below some others but can be competitive here
#8 Boston Tea Party
Cancel aboard concerns slightly
Dutrow in good spot though and good on turf in general
Two career starts both on turg
Won Mdn on Debut (86 spd)
5th in $100k STK (86 spd)
Fairly logical here
Race 8
Notes:
Race 9
Notes:
Fairly open race here
Could get few spicey prices to play at post time
#2 Cold Hard Cash
3/1/1/1 @ the Spa with good spd (87, 90, 93)
Could be good odds
Has hit money in 15 of 20 career starts
Johnny V aboard
#3 Mud Pie
Great on the turf in 9 career starts
2 Wins/3 places/3 shows
Has hit competitive speed #s for this field on the turf
#5 Balthus
Another CB pony on turf + Manny aboard
Could catch attention at windows
Moves up in class but has flashed good speed
Has Win in only start at today’s (1 ⅜ mile)
#7 McLovin
What a name
Joel aboard
2 starts at today’s
1 Win and 1 Show (91 and 74 spd showings
#9 Ajourneytofreedom
Whiffed in 2 starts this year
Maker and Saez aboard
Has hit 98 speed this year (capable to win here)
Race 10
Notes:
#1 Ginsu Warrior
Drops
Been better on turf
Posted 80, 75 and 75 on grass
And CLM level like today
Davis repeats
#2 Cousin Andrew
Speed is winnable here
71, 78, 83 and 83 on turf
Drops also
Connects just OK
#3 Deregulation
Speed is shaky compared to others
…but great 2022 so far (5 starts with 1/2/1)
Hasn’t sprinted yet
#7 Galting
Runs 86 and 84 on dirt then gets claimed
Now being run on turf and pedigree is good for grass
Jockey downgrade concerns
Might like stab here
#11 Sandrone
Solid for this group
2 months off but if can be woken back up then good here
74, 73, 83, 79, 85 and 77 on turf