Saratoga Picks & Analysis August 4

Little weeklong hiatus but we are back. We like the Wednesday slate here at the Spa. Chalk in the middle part of the card but likely good chances to hit some Doubles and Pick 3/Pick 4 plays. Looking for a bounce back to start the week with today's races.

Entering week 4 at the Spa, the jockey standings are only a competition between a trio. Luis Saez (24 wins) leads Jose Ortiz (23 wins) and Irad Ortiz Jr. (22 wins). Slightly behind but worth mentioning, Rosario has 14 wins and Gaffalione 13 wins at the meet.

Trainer Michael Maker has pulled away from the pack of Todd Pletcher/Steve Asmussen (8 wins each) and Chad Brown/Brad Cox (7 wins each). Big results last week has surged Maker ahead of all trainers with 14 wins so far at the meet.

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: COFFEE BAR (6-5) SPORT MODEL (8-5)

Best Value: CASUAL (7-2) L'IMPERATOR (5-1)

Live Longshots: TOWERING ORBIT (8-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

NO PICKS

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 6-7-8

First Pick: #6 MACH ONE (5-1) Class drop for this Danny Gargan trained pony and he has some solid #s going turf to dirt. Like the switch to Luis Saez as well at jockey.

Second Pick: #7 COUSIN ANDREW (4-5) Chad Brown pony has some of the better speed figs in this field. Another class dropper as well. A consistent 3 Place results in 4 career starts.

Third Pick: #8 WE BE THERE (10-1) Upgrading the jockey with Tyler Gaffalione getting the call. Class dropper again here. Not sure this horse has speed to get picture taken but could outlast others.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 3-6-7

First Pick: #3 TAKE THE BACKROADS (2-1) Good spot going turf to dirt for a horse that hit the board in both dirt starts. This filly will get Tyler Gaffalione aboard for this 5.5 furlong contest on the turf.

Second Pick: #6 NEXT TUESDAY (5-1) Another pony getting onto the grass for the first time. The usually aggressive Luis Saez at the saddle for this one.

Third Pick: #7 LEVIOSA (5-2) Upgrades with Irad Ortiz Jr. in this race. First time on the grass but good speed in her debut race (4th place result on the dirt).

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 4-6-2

First Pick: #4 COFFEE BAR (6-5) Todd Pletcher with a pony on the dirt at 1 ⅛ mile? We like that spot and Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard as well. This filly hasn’t missed the board in 4 career starts (1 Win/2 Place/1 Show). Will be the one to beat.

Second Pick: #6 ENOUGH LOVE (9-2) Connections will be shipping in here. Hasn’t raced this distance but has hit the board in 11 of 15 tries on the dirt. 14 of 20 in career. Should be up there.

Third Pick: #2 IFIHADACHANCE (9-5) None of the longer odds horses were interesting here. Luis Saez takes the reins after two Place results in a row down in Belmont.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 5-2-1

First Pick: #5 SPORT MODEL (8-5) Speed of this filly is likely just too good for the rest of this field in the NY Stallion Stakes. Irad Ortiz Jr. will take the reins for trainer Christophe Clement. Speed and results have improved with each start (4 career starts/2 Wins). Last two races came on grass and were Wins.

Second Pick: #2 BYHUBBYHELLOMONEY (8-1) Best effort came for a win on the turf. Worth a shot here for a pony that could stalk the pack in this 1 mile bout.

Third Pick: #1 FUNWHILEITLASTED (5-2) One of the only horses with close to the same speed as our top choice. Finished in 2nd behind that top choice in their last race at Belmont. Jose Lezcano will get the call again after that effort.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 4-1-3

First Pick: #4 SHAMALAMADINGDONG (6-5) A nod to Animal House and Otis Day here. Trainer Christophe Clement in a great spot for this 6 furlong dirt race. This pony has 2 Places results in 3 career starts. One of those Places at today’s distance/surface.

Second Pick: #1 TOWERING ORBIT (8-1) Blinkers will be on and so will jockey Joel Rosario. Willing to take a spot at this filly to catch some money, shorten up should help.

Third Pick: #3 EMPRESS OF WAR (2-1) First time on the dirt for this Michael Miceli filly. Upgrades at jock with Tyler Gaffalione aboard here. Hit the board on OFF surface with some solid #s in that one.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 8-1-9

First Pick: #8 DETERMINED FURY (7-2) This pony for Christophe Clement has put best effort out on the grass. Will move up in class here after a Win on the turf at Belmont. Manny Franco at the reins again for this contender.

Second Pick: #1 MONTAUK DADDY (8-5) Upgrades to Irad Ortiz Jr. here at the reins. Like the shorten up to 5.5 furlongs here for this pony. No stranger to the money, has been there in 8 of 14 career tries.

Third Pick: #9 WILD WILLIAM (8-1) Has raced well at the Spa and at this distance (4 for 7 hitting the board for both spots). Worth a shot at this horse for trainer Kelly Breen.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 4-6-1

First Pick: #4 CASUAL (7-2) Trainer Steve Asmussen is climbing closer and closer to the all-time trainer Wins record. Puts familiar jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard here. Good speed for this filly that has hit the board in 7 of 10 career starts (6 of 9 on dirt & 2 of 3 at 7f).

Second Pick: #6 WHISPERING PINES (12-1) Willing to take a shot at this pony getting into the money. Jose Ortiz gets the call after riding this one to Win at Belmont in June (7f on dirt). Repeat or improved effort would put this filly in the hunt.

Third Pick: #1 BAYERNESS (8-5) Solid speed for this pony that will get the aggressive Luis Saez aboard. This pony hasn’t missed the money in 3 starts this year (1 Win/1 Place/1 Show). Speed and recent performances good enough to hit board here.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 7-2-1

First Pick: #7 BODECREAM (7-2) Tough to ignore a pony that has hit the board in 10 of 12 career starts on the turf. A consistent horse for trainer Michael Maker and good 2021 as well (4 starts/1 Win/2 Places). Gets jockey Tyler Gaffalione aboard for this one.

Second Pick: #2 L’IMPERATOR (5-1) 11 month layoff for this Chad Brown horse but this pony has come in from layoffs without issue before. 5 career starts all on the grass for 3 wins and 1 show. Like the upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. as well.

Third Pick: #1 EN WYE CEE (9-5) Another horse coming off a layoff (9 months). This one has Jose Ortiz aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher. Will drop in class here with a solid resume (7 career starts/3 Wins/3 Shows).

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 5-10-12

First Pick: #5 KITTEN BY THE SEA (4-1) We will go to a Todd Pletcher and Jose Ortiz connection in the Wednesday finale. These ponies are going 1 1/16 mile on the grass (this horse has hit the board in 2 of 3 tries).

Second Pick: #10 OCEAN AIR (7-2) Speed on the turf for this filly is among the top of this pack. Has only raced on the turf and has been running well in 2021 (5 starts/1 Win/2 Places). Like the connections of Christophe Clement and Irad Ortiz Jr.

Third Pick: #12 HOHOHOHO (5-1) Hasn’t missed the board in 4 career tries on the turf (1 Win/1 Place/2 Shows). Can run with this group of horses well enough to hit the board. 5 career starts and hit the board in 4 of those tries.