Saratoga Picks & Analysis August 20

Hot start to the week yesterday. Had 24 picks and hit the board on 17 of those. Our “First Pick” in the 8 races written about had 3 Wins, 3 Places and 2 Shows. 

The Top of the Card showed out well and didn’t miss the money. The “Most Likely Money” plays hit for a Place and Show. The “Best Value”, JOYOUS TIMES ran to a Place at 5-1 closing odds and the “Live Longshot” WILLING TO SPEED closed 5-1 from the 12-1 ML odds and ran to Show. 

Let’s keep the picks rolling today. 

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money:  FIRST APPEAL (9-5) and CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE (3-1)

Best Value: WILD WILLIAM (6-1) and IMPORTANT ONE (6-1)

Live Longshots: WUSHU WARRIOR (20-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

Ponies We Like: 

HURDLES-- NO PICKS

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 6-4-2

First Pick: #6 THANKFUL (9-5) Comes in off 2 month layoff but posted best speed numbers in this field in her June 18 race at Belmont (2nd in 1 1/16m on dirt). Only other career start came on turf and 9th place finish. Trained by Todd Pletcher and jockey Luis Saez will take reins again for this horse. 

Second Pick: #4 HEAVENLY SIS (4-1) Has shown solid form thus far in 2020 with 3 Place finishes in 5 races. Will be stretching out here from recent races but should handle the distance well. Has 7 career starts for 4 Places and 1 Show. 

Third Pick: #2 TONAL VERSE (6-1) Gets Javier Castellano aboard here which will be an upgrade. Has 1 Place and 1 Show in 3 starts this year, the only finish out of the money came on turf. Trained by Graham Motion, this filly has 5 career starts with 2 Places and 2 Shows. 

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 2-1-5

First Pick: #2 FIRST APPEAL (9-5) One of two heavier favorites on the ML and is deserving for both. 33 career starts for 6 Wins, 10 Places and 3 Shows. Of those, 26 starts have come on the turf, hitting the board 16 times in those races on grass. Trained by Rudy Rodriguez and will get Javier Castellano aboard (he has moneyed aboard this horse multiple times).  

Second Pick: #1 OUT OF TROUBLE (5-2) Will drop in class for this race and shorte up slightly in distance as well. Gets top tier jockey Irad Ortiz aboard and is trained by Brad Cox. Has hit the board in 17 of 32 career races and on the turf has hit money in 13 of 24 tries. 

Third Pick: #5 AWESOME ALANA (8-5) Chalky race here but these horses are just better than the others here. Comes in off a 5 month layoff and is in first race off the claim. Was with the barn of trainer Chad Brown and will be racing for Linda Rice for the first time today. Has hit the board in 5 of 7 career races but only has 1 turf race (Show result). 

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 7-8-5

First Pick: #7 DISCIPLINARIAN (9-5) Jose Ortiz will hop aboard here for this horse who has speed among this field. Has 4 starts this year for 7th, 4th, 3rd and 3rd results. The 3rd place efforts both came on turf and has hit the board in 4 of 4 career races on the grass. 

Second Pick: #8 THREEPOINTNINENINE (2-1) Has whiffed the board in 2 career starts but showed much life in the last race which came on turf (5th place). Faced better in that race and was beaten by less than 2 lengths for the money. Will get Luis Saez aboard here in a good spot to improve in 2nd turf effort.

Third Pick: #5 LORCAN (12-1) Should be live one here. 5.5f sprint and will get Kendrick Carmouche aboard for it. Ran poorly at 1m last time out (7th place) but ran to 3rd in race before that at 6f. Shortening up should help here today. 

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 1-6-2-3

First Pick: #1 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE (3-1) First race for trainer Rudy Rodriguez and will take a slight drop in class for it. Gets Irad Ortiz aboard and comes in off Win and Show in the last two efforts. 6 career starts with 2 Wins and 1 Show. 

Second Pick: #6 LEAVEUWITHASMILE (8-5) Has some of the best speed numbers among this field here. 9 career starts and 4 wins (all wins have come on dirt). Will drop in class here in 1st race for trainer Danny Gargan. Gets Luis Saez at the reins as well. 

Third Pick: #2 LAKE CHICOT (8-1) Could be the horse to be chased with this fillies’ early speed and also Kendrick Carmouche aboard. In 6.5f sprint, that lead can hold. Carmouche was aboard last race for Win at 7f on dirt. Will be a small step up in class from that race. Has hit the money in 3 of 6 career starts. 

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 4-5-3-8

First Pick: #4 WILD WILLIAM (6-1) Trained by James Bond and will get Luis Saez aboard here in a 5.5f sprint on the turf. No stranger to this sprint, has 1 Win and 2 Places in 6 starts at 5.5f distance. Has 13 career starts on turf for 1 Win, 3 Places and 2 Shows. 

Second Pick: #5 BIG WONDER (8-5) Has some of the best speed on the turf among this field here. Has hit the money in 8 of 15 starts on the turf, much better than his dirt showings. Only 1 Win in 26 career starts but should be in thick of things with this field today. 

Third Pick: #3 RED MULE (7-2) Ricardo Santana Jr. will hop aboard for this Rob Atras trained horse. 11 career starts with 1 Win, 1 Place and 5 Shows. Has hit the money in 3 of 4 races at this distance and 6 of 9 times on the turf. 

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 4-2-3

First Pick: #4 MY BOY TATE (2-1) Has shown good speed especially at 6f with 2 Wins and 2 Places in 5 starts at the distance. Experienced at the STK level for trainer Michelle Nevin and has hit the board 11 times in 16 career starts. 

Second Pick: #2 STAN THE MAN (7-5) Drops down from a G2 STK race where he ran to Place finish. Gets Joel Rosario aboard once again here and has some of the best speed in this field. Has 3 Places in 3 races at this 6f distance.

Third Pick: #3 READY TO ESCAPE (10-1) Will get Kendrick Carmouche aboard here for this race, coming in off Show result at 6f last time out. 11 career races at this distance for 2 Wins, 2 Places and 2 Shows. Has hit the money in 11 of 16 on the dirt as well. 

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 4-7-5

First Pick: #4 IMPORTANT ONE (6-1) Will make a small move up in class here but has yet to miss the money in 3 career starts (2 Wins and 1 Show). Trained by Steve Asmussen and also gets top tier jockey Joel Rosario aboard for another race (Win last time at 6f on turf). Has flashed some of the best speed among this field. 

Second Pick: #7 LEAD GUITAR (7-5) This horse will drop in class here and gets Tyler Gaffalione aboard. 6 of 7 career starts have come on the turf (2 Wins, 2 Places and 1 Show). Has also hit the money in 4 of 5 races at this distance. 

Third Pick: #5 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL (5-2) 4 career starts for 2 Wins and 1 Place for this filly. Will get Javier Castellano aboard after riding to Place last time out (5.5f on turf). Has the speed to close into this field here. 

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 1-7-3

First Pick: #1 DARK MONEY (7-2) Will drop down in class here in 1st race off the claim for trainer Joseph Saffie. Will get upgrade to Jose Ortiz at the reins. Has early speed and has raced well at this 6f sprint, hitting the board in 6 of 9 races. 14 career starts for this horse with 6 Wins and 2 Places. 

Second Pick: #7 JUST RIGHT (9-2) Trained by Todd Pletcher and gets Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard for this sprint. Has performed well in 12 career starts (all on the dirt) with 3 Wins, 3 Places and 1 Show. Has STK level experience and ran to Place in a similar CLM race last time out.  

Third Pick: #3 WUSHU WARRIOR (20-1) Has hit the board in 27 career starts (6w/6p/1s). Of those 27 races, 22 have come at this 6f distance for 6 Wins and 5 Places. Ton of experience in this type of race and will drop down in class for this one today. Ran to Win last time at this level.